The three exclamations represent MoneyFrog’s inherent value, i.e. Wealth, Security & Protection, that’s why I decided to express it with three exclamations!!!

New Year also represents, not just the “Party-mood” to celebrate, but the “New Year Resolutions”, we proudly write down or post it on social media 😉.

Resolutions are nothing but Goals, which we decide to fulfil in a few months to 12 months. And, if I recall my resolutions (as far as I can think), I have been making them since I was in my twenties, and in terms of achievement & progress, it’s just been a fad for me, which usually lasts few weeks to few months, on a max.

But over the years, I have evolved, and thought of sharing my experience:

1. Review current year – before deciding on the resolutions for the new year, I spend time on my current resolutions (usually few days to a week), i.e. to review my current year resolutions, an exercise to simply write down month-wise progress & score it on a scale of 1 to 10.
2. Resolution logic – resolutions are not meant to be decided based on fan following or what others are doing, but what I can do & feel proud about. Also, I ensure that my resolutions are slightly uncomfortable, as anything easy isn’t challenging.
3. Resolution count – now since I am clear on current year achievement & miss-outs, next step is to decide & bring my resolution count to max 1 or 2, against each category for the new year. I usually follow 5 categories:
   • Personal – Health/ Fitness
   • Family – Relationship/ time-out
   • Work – Project/ Revenue
   • Learning – Read/ Courses/ something new
   • Money – Financial plan/ New avenues/ Debt etc.
4. Resolution journal – there is no meaning to create resolutions if I cannot monitor. As a matter of fact, my resolution success, over the years kick-started, only when I adopted the journal method. Journal is nothing but a note-pad, with written down resolutions & a daily/ monthly progress sheet. I’m from the old school of thought, hence a note-pad 😉 (whereas you can always have a new-age mobile app to help).

“What you get by achieving your goals is not as important, as what you become by achieving your goals”.

-Quote from Zig Zigler.

With 2019 about to close in next few days, Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty snapped three days of losses and managed to close high on Friday, due to positive cues from domestic & global markets. On a weekly basis, Sensex lost 0.19 percent and Nifty declined by 0.14 percent.

Profit booking was seen across the sector this week, due to fear of missing on fiscal deficit target with a struggling economy and shortfall in revenue collection. Government is unlikely to complete privatization of Air India, BPCL and Container Corporation of India by FY20, which was part of meeting fiscal deficit target plan.

According to ICRA report, the asset quality of the banking sector to improve further, with declining slippages and improvements in recoveries, which supported the banking stocks to rally, and near-term profitability may increase.

RBI announcement on simultaneous purchase and sale of government securities on 30^th December through special open market operations for Rs.10000 crore. This is a second time, when such operation will be performed, following a review of liquidity situation.

On an optimistic note, 2020 will bring more cheers, compared to the current sentiment in the markets. Wish you fabulous health, wealth & security in 2020!

Happy New Year 2020!

US President Donald Trump’s comment on near to finalizing trade deal between US and china lifted the market sentiment to a new high today. Though exact details are yet to be announced (later in the evening) and may spur further jump on Monday. 

IPO: The 750 crore Ujjain small finance bank IPO, which was subscribed 165 times, making it the highest subscription in a year, saw a debut with 60% gain (Rs.62 opening against issue price of Rs.37). India’s first exchange-traded fund; i.e. Bharat Bond ETF is launched this week, with the investment strategy of AAA-rated government-owned companies, and with lower credit risk.

Rising food prices, pushed the retail inflation in November to raise three year high of 5.54% which is above RBI’s target rate of 4%, indicates the possibility of a further pause in a rate cut, while industrial sector output shrank by 3.8% in October, due to slow growth.

Indian benchmark indices ended higher on positive cues from the global market. On a weekly basis, Sensex gained 580 points or 1.43% and Nifty gained 190 points or 1.59%.

December month started with some negative sentiments in the Indian equity market due to uncertainty in global markets, as well as Indian market, like lowering GDP numbers, Monetary policy outcome, US-China trade war, FII sell-off etc. On a weekly basis Sensex lost 1.19% and Nifty declined 1.36%.

FII (Foreign institutional investor) were net sellers in the first week, to the tune of Rs.2990 Crores, whereas DII (Domestic institutional investor) was the net buyer.

RBI surprised everyone, kept the policy Repo rate unchanged to 5.15% with ‘accommodative’ stance, amid slowdown and increase in the inflation target. RBI also slashed GDP forecast for FY-20 to 5% from an earlier projection of 6.1%.

IPO: the Bumper listing for CSB share, listed 41% up at 275 and touched 51% to mark 307 in a day on 4th Dec, whereas Ujjain small finance bank IPO subscribed 165 times, highest subscription in a year which will make a debut next week. India’s first exchange-traded fund, i.e. Bharat Bond ETF to be launched in this month with the investment strategy of AAA-rated government-owned companies with lower credit risk.

It’s shocking to read Karvy Stock Broker’s story this week. What’s the actual fact, the modus operandi, who all have suffered, the quantum? will only come out in due course of time (post the investigation). But my biggest concern is not about these scams (as scams will keep happening in a growing economy), but the speedy trial, or the law & regulators, to take over and act.

• NSCL scam of 2013 (5000 crores), is still to be resolved & customers refunded their money.
• PMC Bank crisis, where all the account holders (upward of 50k) are still suffering, with heart-rending stories.
• Goodwin Jewellers (Gold scheme) scam, still to be traced.

But surprisingly, we have some common threads in all this, and if taken care, will help avoid same. Customers who are stuck in these scams, usually are the ones who wanted higher returns, have disregard to the basics of investment, and above all, didn’t question; as either it’s the GREED which took over, or the HERD mentality of following the others, towards the account opening with these firms.

SIMPLE RULES to follow for any investment account opening:

First, ask as many questions: like, how the returns are generated, its calculation, company founders background, the universal thumb rule on investment basics, etc.

Most Important, nothing comes FREE: hence disassociate from any account or services, offered as free, or on a similar trick, or let say, commission-free.

Second, updated KYC: i.e. ensure that your mobile no & email ID is registered with your Bank, Broker & all your investment accounts. This means that you receive all transactional messages (SMS & Email), as & when it happens.

Third, if something is too good to be true, it’s better to junk it. NSCL scam, I remember, offered very high returns. How can someone generate such returns? Similarly, PMC bank, most of the customers are from just one community. Why just follow others, just because it’s from the same community? Moreover, PMC Bank is a cooperative bank, with a dual regulator, resulting in a lot of grey areas in terms of governance & compliance (which is very well known). We have had many cases of cooperative banks getting into trouble earlier (Madhavpura bank in 2001 going bust, is one such case).

IS MY PORTFOLIO (or account) SAFE?

The answer is Yes (it’s safe), as-long-as you have green ticks on all the above points.

In case you don’t have green ticks on some (or let’s say all), just go back to each account of yours & first update your KYC. Post that, complete the other checks. Now if you are not convinced, go ahead & close your account (& shift to safer investments).

One needs to just learn & adapt … and not worry & panic.

After months of net selling, FII (Foreign institutional investor) remained net buyers in November month, to the tune of 14,817 crores, whereas DII (Domestic institutional investor) opted for profit booking & were net-sellers.

Today (or Friday), the market witnessed selling pressure due to GDP growth announcement, which is expected to fall below 5% for the first time, since last six years, due to slowing demand, weak IIP data, slump in export, and global slowdown, resulting in further downfall. Sensex settled 336 points down at 40793, and Nifty settled 95 points down at 12056.

The CSB Bank IPO opened with a huge response, subscribed 87 times on Tuesday, and will make a debut on 3^rd December, next week

Shares in focus; Reliance industries crossed the 10 lacs crore mark by market capitalization, India-bulls housing finance surged 40% in last three days after regulators gave them clean-chit (did not find any irregularities in loans given to certain entities), and Auto sector gained on scrappage-policy news.

Sensex is holding onto 40k levels strongly this month, three weeks in a row now, also hitting new highs. All thanks to continuous FII’s inflow, supportive domestic and global cues.

Government’s continuous measures to bring slowing economy on track, offered last week relief to realty sector, which has been performing badly due to liquidity, where Government infused Rs. 25000 crores, along with SBI and LIC, to help in-complete projects.

To save telecom companies, government has given approval to provide two-year moratorium on spectrum payment, which will lead to relief in cash-flow improvement for three major players. Further, tariff hike announcement by three players will help them to improve future revenue.

Towards privatisation drive, the union cabinet approved sale of govt. stake in BPCL, SCI & CONCOR. Also, they have decided to cut shareholding in some public sector firm to below 51% to boost revenue collections, that have been hit by slowing economy.

Zee entertainment share rebounded with 15% jump, after promoters announce to sell 16.5% stake in company to pays dues.

Indian Benchmark index Sensex and Nifty remained volatile throughout the week, due to domestic and global news, with Sensex still holding 40k plus levels but Nifty lost 12k mark amid quarterly outcomes of companies and slowing factory output, CPI & WPI data.

FII remained net buyer in Indian stock market and infused Rs. 4425.37 crore in the cash segment, whereas DII’s chose to book profit.

We witnessed selling pressure on news that India’s industrial production shrank for the second consecutive month, i.e. 4.3% in September, compared to 1.4% in August. Also, there is a sharp uptick in CPI (consumer price index) to 4.62% in October from 3.99% in September month, which is above target price of RBI (i.e. 4%), with still a hope of small rate cut in the coming month.

Some companies registered positive earnings due to corporate tax rate cut, whereas some lost due to low demand in the economy. Stocks seen rallied are AU small finance bank, HDFC AMC, DLF, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank.

The Indian Benchmark index, Sensex recorded its all-time high i.e. 40,688 this week, and Nifty once again crossed the psychological mark of 12k in this week, due to supportive cues from domestic, as well as global markets.

On Friday, throughout the day market remained volatile, post afternoon we have seen profit booking after Moody’s downgrading India’s outlook to “Negative” from “Stable”, but FY20 outlook remains positive.

FII remained net buyer in Indian stock market, to the tune of Rs.2806 crore in cash segment, whereas DII’s opted for a profit booking.

FM Ms Nirmala Sitharaman’s announcement to boost the economy, Rs.25000 crore funding towards incomplete housing projects (govt. to invest 10000 in AIF, SBI & LIC to invest 15000), boosted sentiments in realty & cement sectors.

Stocks seen rallied are DLF, due to the announcement of funding in the realty sector, Infosys on not receiving any supporting evidence for whistle-blower complaints, and Varun-beverages on strong September quarter earnings.

The gloomy & uncertain market since the last few months has turned euphoric, bringing much-needed cheers to the market.

Even though there is buying with the big players, most of the indicators and data points are still below-par. The big players who generally lifts or starts the momentum, usually starts with a possible positive cues (coming soon); like income tax breather (to be announced) for individuals, some more corporate/ equity market sops (to be announced by the government) and above all, the international factors like the upcoming US & China meet in mid-Nov, towards easing of Trade-war further.

Stocks seen rallied are Tata Motors, SBI, Yes Bank, Infosys, TCS etc. Among this, Tata Motors and Yes bank have shown their vertical upward move, closing above 30%, key reason being, the capital infusion.

In terms of data points: Core Sector output shrinks 5.2%, touching fiscal deficit to 92.6%, the unemployment rate in October rose to 8.5% (highest in 3 years), and weakening auto numbers.