Financial Planning

“Market fluctuations are your friend, not enemy.” – Warren Buffett

Nifty index started November on a positive note but slipped for most part of the month and witnessed recovery towards the end. It dropped by 1270 points from its highs with some respite towards the end and managed to close above 24000 zones. On the sectoral front we have witnessed buying interest in IT and Banking while weakness in Energy, Metal, Auto, FMCG sector.

Continuous selling by FIIs was paused due to a clean sweep by BJP in Maharashtra assembly elections. This win means BJP & allies will now command majority in both the houses of Parliament, leading to easy passage of bills & continue major reforms.

Negatives in November:

• Q2 GDP shocker: Q2 GDP growth of 5.4% was at its lowest in the last seven quarters.
• India’s CPI inflation rose to 6.21% in October, above the RBI’s target range which may delay the rate cuts.
• India’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.5 in November compared to October’s 57.5.
• Q2 result season was overall weak.
• American courts have indicted Adani for bribing some Indian State governments of $250 million during 2021-22.
• Trump ups the ante on tariffs, vowing massive taxes on goods from Mexico, Canada and China on Day 1.
• U.S. President Biden authorises Ukraine to use American missiles against Russia, sparking policy shift and international tensions.
• Fed officials adopting a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts.

Positives in December:

• BJP & allies won Maharashtra assembly elections with a thumping majority, paving way for clear majority in Rajya Sabha and continuity of policy reforms.
• GST collection increased to Rs 1.82 lakh crore in November, an 8.5% rise from the previous year.
• Festive season demand has picked up. We have the longest marriage season (November-January), which should boost consumption.
• Crude Oil prices trading below $70 per barrel, positive for Indian Markets.
• Israel and Lebanon accepted a US-backed proposal to end the 13-month border conflict that spiralled into an all-out war in September with Hezbollah.
• Chinese stimulus packages announcement below expectations, hence limiting further outflow of FII money from India to China.

Conclusion:

• Indian markets have corrected over 8% from its peak. Valuations were pricey as compared to peers and correction was overdue. December is normally a month of profit booking by FIIs before year end closing, hence further selling by them is expected.

• Donald Trump will take charge of office in January 2025 and has already announced what policy decisions will he take post resuming office. Hence markets will wait and watch till full policy announcements are done. A tariff war is expected to resume which is unhealthy for world markets.

• Modi Govt is also quiet since its victory in Lok Sabha elections. Spending is slow and no major reforms announcement has been made till now. Budget will be announced on 1st Feb 2025. New Tax Code is expected to be announced, and other policy announcements should trigger next leg of market upside post budget.

• Benefits of good monsoon this year will be seen in rural spending. Q3FY25, influenced by festive and wedding season demand, likely pick up in government spending, etc. will be pivotal in shaping the near-term growth trajectory.

Hence, we recommend averaging in equity mutual fund schemes in coming two months. Once FIIs selling stops, domestic buying which is consistent will take markets to new highs. We expect markets to be volatile in December and Nifty may trade in the range of 23500 – 25000 levels.

“The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting” – Charlie Munger

Nifty index started the September month on a positive note and after the initial dip in the first week, it witnessed a movement of more than 1500 points to touch a fresh all time high of 26277. It remained volatile in the last two weeks and lost all its gain of the previous month by correcting from 26277 to 24700. It witnessed volatile swings in last five weeks, as rallied by 1500 points followed by a sharp corrective move of more than 1600 points.

A sharp cut in key policy rates by Fed propelled Indian equity markets to new all-time highs, while sudden escalation in Israel-Iran war, China announcing stimulus packages, SEBI restrictions on F&O trading and Exit polls showing BJP losing Haryana led to sharp correction in markets.

Positives in September:

• Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years.
• India’s Services Sector Reached a Five-month High, With PMI Rising To 60.9 In August, Up From 60.3 In July, Driven by Strong Domestic Demand.
• India Has Overtaken China in The MSCI AC World IMI Index with A 2.35 Per Cent Weighting Compared to A 2.24 Per Cent for The Latter.
• India’s Forex Reserves Hit All-time High Of $704.89 Billion, Up $12.5 Billion As of Sept 27.

Key reasons for heavy selling in markets:

• China’s central bank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic. In September, China unveiled a monetary stimulus package including cuts to mortgage rates and the amount of reserves, one is required to keep on deposit with the central bank. Those and other measures were the most aggressive efforts so far to try to pull the property industry out of the doldrums and spur faster growth.
• Iran-Israel Conflict: War in gulf region escalated after Israel attacked Lebanon and killed Hezbollah chief with air strikes. It also started a ground invasion of Lebanon, expanding the war zone from Gaza to Lebanon. Iran in a surprise move launched ballistic missiles over Israel to avenge the killing of Hezbollah chief which triggered a panic selling in the market expecting an escalation of wider conflict in the region.
• SEBI announces new measures for F&O trading: In order to protect investors’ interest and cut down on speculative trading, capital market regulator Sebi came down heavily on the derivatives market by announcing a series of measures. The six-step framework is designed to tackle the surge in speculative trading volumes, especially on expiry days, while also acting as a potential deterrent for retail investors engaging in F&O trading.
• Valuations are at premium to historical averages: Since valuations of all 3 broader category indexes were trading at historical averages, correction was overdue. Above factors allowed markets to correct and bring valuations to a little cheaper level.
• Impact of State election results: Elections were due in states of Haryana & J&K. All exit polls predicted a loss of BJP due to anti-incumbency factor. This also led to selling in markets as a loss for BJP will be seen as a change in political trend – negative for markets. Surprisingly, BJP was able to retain power for a 3rd consecutive time in Haryana and markets took a breath of relief. Coming state elections in Maharashtra & Jharkhand will also be keenly watched.

Conclusion: All above factors are majorly external & geopolitical. India is still the best market in the world to invest in. Investors should treat this correction as an opportunity rather than sell off their portfolio.

The key factor in today’s Indian market is the dominance of Mutual Fund investments and its ability to cushion and support markets from the onslaught of FIIs selling. The month-on-month inflows from retail investors in mutual fund schemes has not stopped and continues to grow higher. Fund houses are sitting on ample cash to be pumped in such corrections.

Big Bang IPO lined up this month: Companies are rushing to go public in India this year as the stock market booms, with Hyundai Motor’s Indian unit gearing up to launch the country’s biggest initial public offering (IPO) of 2024. Hyundai Motor India, which will be India’s largest Initial Public Offering (IPO) till date, has fixed the price band for its public issue between ₹1,865 to ₹1,960 per equity share.

October outlook: Large, Mid & Small Cap Indexes have corrected in the range of 4-5% each. Large & Small Caps are in fair value zone while Mid-Caps are still trading in over-valued zone. Q2 earnings season will start and will play a major role in setting directions for the markets. We expect markets to be volatile in October and Nifty may trade in the range of 24000-26000 levels.

“The Rich invest in time; the Poor invest in money.” – Warren Buffet

India’s equity markets extended their gains for the third month and ended at record highs. BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rallied 0.76% and 1.14% on-month, respectively. Markets scaled all-time high multiple times, with the Sensex and Nifty breaching the 82,000-mark and 25,200-mark, respectively. 

Strong signals of an imminent rate cut by US Fed in near future, coupled with positive US economic data, propelled the domestic equities to all-time high. Further gains in the market were capped because of sell-off in consumer and energy stocks and worries over Middle East tensions. Some losses were seen because of profit booking amid concerns over US economy, following weaker-than expected manufacturing data and rise in jobless claims.  

DIIs bought Rs 482.78 billion worth Indian equities, compared with Rs 249.36 billion in Jul-24. FIIs bought Indian equities worth Rs 73.2 billion, compared with Rs 323.64 billion in Jul-24. India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.7% in Q1FY25 compared with 7.8% growth in Q4FY24. India’s GDP is estimated to grow at 6.8% in FY25.

Positives in August:

• GST collections grow 10 per cent to Rs 1.75 lakh crore in August.
• Monthly Mutual Fund SIP Flow crosses 23,000 Cr for first time ever.
• CPI inflation dipped to 3.54% on-year in July-24 from 5.08% in June-24.
• WPI Inflation eased to 2% in July’24 from a 16mth high of 3.3%.
• India forex reserves touch a record high of $675 bn.
• Manufacturing FDI rose 69% over the last 10Y to $165 bn in FY24.
• Cumulative rainfall till 1st Sept 24 seen 7.3% above normal.

September Key Events:

• Key US FED meet for a possible rate cut on Sept 17-18, 2024.
• Big IPOs continues to hit market. Bajaj Housing Finance to raise 7K Cr.
• War news from Israel-Iran & Russia-Ukraine. Iran’s response to Hamas leader killing is still awaited.
• SEBI new ruling on F&O restrictions are expected. This can have a negative impact on the markets.
• Valuations of indices are close to their 5-year averages. Domestic MFs are sitting on Rs 1.5 lakh crore or 5% of their AUM in cash, and this will further cushion any major fall.

The fundamental drivers of India’s multi-decade consumption and infrastructure growth are still firmly in place: favourable demographic dividend, rising per capita income, under-control inflation, digital transformation, strong corporate balance sheets and consolidation of Central fiscal deficit.

India’s macroeconomic situation remains strong and the budget cemented Government’s commitment to further its fiscal consolidation path. Although India’s macros look robust, valuations are not cheap. Valuations of large caps are reasonable compared to the mid and small caps.

Outlook ahead: markets are nearing an over-valued zone, corporate results have been subdued, FIIs are still selling, and DIIs are aggressive buying, all these reasons are keeping the markets afloat. We expect markets to be sideways in September and rising gradually at a slower pace than August. Disappointment in Fed September meeting can drag markets down.

Happy Investing!

“ALL IS WELL THAT ENDS WELL.”

Mega event of Lok Sabha Elections is behind us. As expected, BJP retained power but with the coalition support. Economy has grown at a faster pace in the last decade under the leadership of PM Modi and same will be continued for another 5 years. Markets were expecting Stability & Continuity from these elections and same were delivered to them. Even the union ministers were retained with same portfolios, with BJP retaining majority of the share.

The coalition will approve most of the economic policies & reforms. However, the partners will have a say in them and might me modified to suit them. Social reforms such as CAA & UCC may take a back seat or will be modified from what was originally planned. Moral of the story is MODI is back as PM and his ambition to make India a developed economy by 2047 remains intact.

Positives in May:

1. India’s Q4 GDP Grows 7.8%, Surpasses Estimates; FY24 Growth At 8.2%.
2. May 2024 GST Collections at Rs 1.73 Lakh Crore; Up 10% Year-On-Year.
3. S&P upgrades outlook on India’s sovereign rating to ‘positive’.
4. April CPI inflation eases to 4.83% vs 4.85% in March 2024.
5. Bumper RBI dividend of Rs 2.11 trillion to give govt more fiscal room.
6. BSE Market Cap Hits $5 Trillion For The 1St Time. Market Capitalization-To-GDP Ratio at All Time High of 140.2%.

June 2024 – What to look forward? In our last month’s market outlook, we had said that market performance this year is entirely dependent on below factors:

1. Fed rate cuts, 2) War, 3) Elections

Fed rate cuts: GDP, PMI no’s cooling off, inflation & job data sticky, hence Fed will maintain status quo now, with probability of at least 2 rate cuts this year gaining momentum.

War: No major escalations now limited to small attacks. Talks for peace solution going on, can see some good news on this front.

Elections: With NDA Govt formed and Modi back as PM, elections are done and dusted, focus now on continuity of growth & new reforms. Budget in July end will now be a key event to watch.

Since all above factors moving in positive directions, markets are scaling up new highs. New factors to watch for the entire year now will be:

1. Earnings growth
2. Valuations
3. DIIs Flows
4. China +1

Earnings Growth: The corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of FY24 were strong, with widespread outperformance across aggregates. The earnings beat was driven by domestic cyclicals, such as Autos and Financials, along with Healthcare, Capital Goods, and Cement, while global cyclicals like Metals and Oil & Gas dragged down overall profitability.

Nifty 50 delivered a strong beat with a net profit growth of 12% year-on-year (YoY). Five Nifty companies, HDFC Bank, State Bank of India (SBI), ONGC, Tata Motors, and Coal India, contributed 72% of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Ex-Metals and Oil & Gas, Nifty’s earnings grew 16% YoY.

Hence better earnings have helped bringing valuations in fair zone again. Nifty is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 19.2x, at a 6% discount to its own long-period average (LPA).

Valuations: Indian markets are not cheap in valuations at present, but they are not over valued also. With all economic & geo-political indicators in its favour, it is obvious to command certain premium over others and this will be the norm going ahead unless and until there is some shift from its existing stance. It can be political or policy-wise, both scenarios highly unlikely to happen. So, every small dip will be good opportunity to buy rather than waiting for heavy corrections.

DIIs Flows:

Above data is a clear indicator that Indian markets are now not dependent on FIIs money. Money flowing from SIP’s, Insurance Policies, NPS & Provident Funds have gradually become so big that it is enough to hold back Indexes on its own buying strength.

Indian investors shift from traditional products like FDs, Gold & Real Estate to Mutual Funds and Direct equities is fuelling this rally. This money is there for long term and not to go away quickly. Hence placing a bet against Indian markets will be suicidal now.

China +1: Post Covid, countries across the globe has identified that they cannot be dependent on China, which is now Worlds Manufacturing Hub. China’s current regime is unpredictable, autocratic and pro-conflicts. During Covid, supplies were hit high due to strict and long lockdowns by Chinese Govt. Any future attempt to annex Taiwan will make matters worse and sanctions will hit supplies badly.

Hence world needs alternative, big enough to take care of China. Vietnam, Indonesia are smaller countries not big enough to provide alternative to China. India is the only country in size & resources which can be an apt alternative to China.

Indian Govt has already identified this opportunity in its last regime and already taken action on this front. PLI scheme, corporate tax cuts, infra build up are some of the initiatives India has started. Manufacturing boom will also spur up other sectors related to it like Power, Infra, Housing, Consumption & Auto.

Hence, we can see more allocation of funds this budget in these sectors. India’s imports will decrease drastically, fiscal deficit will improve, and ratings will be upgraded. India’s domestic economy is so huge that even in case of geo-political tensions or global recession, internal demand & consumption will take care of the economy as compared to peers.

Conclusion: We have entered a heavy bull run and above factors will take markets to new high. Any dips should be bought in. Focused sectors like Defence, Power, Manufacturing, Housing, Auto & Consumption will do much better than traditional indexes.

“We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.” – Warren Buffet

Equity markets continued its positive momentum in April for the 3rd consecutive month on the back of strong macros, positive global cues, and healthy earnings. Nifty made a new life high of 22,783 in April and closed the month with gains of 1.2%. Broader markets sharply outperformed with Nifty Midcap-100 up +5.8% while Smallcap-100 jumped +11.4%.

Positives in April:

• GST collection crossing the Rs.2 lakh crore mark for the first time in April’24 at Rs.2.10 lakh crore grossing a growth of 12.4% YoY.
• India’s retail inflation eased to a 10-month low of 4.9% in Mar’24 vs. 5.1% in Feb’24.
• The corporate earnings scorecard for 4QFY24 has been in line so far with the 28 Nifty companies that had announced their results as of 4th May’24, reported an earnings growth of 13% vs. expectations of 8%.
• US Fed kept interest rates unchanged for 6th time. However, it ruled out the possibility of rate cuts in the near term amid ongoing inflationary pressure in US and hinted at higher interest rates for a longer period.
• IMF raises India’s FY24 GDP growth forecast to 7.8%, higher than the government’s projection.
• With a record $776.68 billion worth of exports In FY24, India’s trade deficit narrows to $78 Billion.
• Skymet weather forecasts, normal monsoon for India in 2024.

April 2024 – Key Decision-Making Month:
Market performance this year is entirely dependent on below factors:
1) Fed rate cuts
2) War
3) Elections

Fed Rate Cuts: Finally, US economy has started to cool off. US Real GDP QoQ Nos came at 1.60%, compared to 3.40% last quarter and 2.20% last year. This is lower than the long-term average of 3.18%. US Non-Farm Payrolls dropped sharply from 315K to 175K in April 2024.
Any lower nos. for inflation data this month will guarantee a rate cut this year. With elections due later this year in US, Fed will also be under pressure to cut rates this year which will be extremely positive for world markets and specifically India as RBI will follow suit lowering borrowing cost for corporates.

War: In April we saw war escalation in the Gulf region wherein Iran-Israel conflict nearly created a world war like situation. Common sense prevailed and it ended up without any major damages on either side. Similarly, Ukraine-Russia war has been dragging on since last 2 years not escalating to a bigger conflict world-wide.
In 2024, we will continue to some sporadic incidents from these regions which will create volatility in markets but will be short-lived and under control.

Elections: Lok Sabha elections started with a positive biasedness that ruling party will come back again with even greater majority (400+ seats) but as 3 phases of voting ended, low voter turnouts created a doubt in the mind of investors on above targets and hence saw a sharp correction of 1000 pts in Nifty from its peak.
This correction also allowed valuations to cool off and with support from good corporate earnings Nifty PE came down from 23.2 in April to 21.4 in May making valuations fair.

Conclusion: With Fed expected to cut rates by September, War cooling off and with current Govt expected to return back with higher or simple majority, there will be no major negative news for markets to correct in remaining part of 2024.
Current correction due to market nervousness before election results will be the last chance to enter markets in order to encash a higher return by end of year. We cannot expect much cheaper valuations than this as India is a preferred investment destination at present and no preferred things in demand will come cheaper.

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”– Warren Buffet

Indian benchmark equity rallied a record high in Mar24. S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 ended higher with 3.34% and 3.33% month-on-month. Sectoral indices ended mixed, with capital goods, auto and metal gaining the most. S&P BSE Capital goods rose 6.15%, while S&P BSE Auto and S&P BSE Metal were up 4.96% and 3.81%, respectively. Loses were observed in IT, realty and FMCG. S&P BSE IT was down 7.20%, S&P BSE Realty fell 1.21%, and S&P BSE FMCG slipped 0.67%.

In between Mid & Small Cap Index also corrected sharply falling 6.05% & 11.05% respectively. SEBI’s comments on caution in markets due to high valuations + Stress test conducted on Mid & Small Cap mutual fund schemes led to this sharp fall. But by the end of the month, entire losses were recovered.

Key Events So Far

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the repo rate under its liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) at 6.50% for the seventh consecutive time at its policy review meet.
• GDP projection for FY24 is estimated at 7.6% and 7% for FY25, with risk evenly balanced. CPI Inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5%.
• US economy expanded an annualised 3.4% in Q4CY23, higher than estimate 3.2%, compared with 4.9% in Q3CY23. Fed left key lending rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% 5th consecutive meeting.
• FIIs and DIIs were net buyers in Mar-24, similar to the last month. In Mar-24, FII bought Rs 35,098 billion Indian equity compared to sale of Rs 15.39 billion in Feb-24. DIIs bought Rs 563.6 billion compared with Rs 253.8 billion. FPI Flows into India Hit Record ₹ 3.33 Lakh Crore This Fiscal Year.
• India’s March Manufacturing PMI Climbs to A 16 – Year High Of 59.1. GST Collection in March Surges To ₹ 1.78 Lakh Crore.
• Gold prices touches record high of Rs 71,150/- per 10 gm. The expectation of rate cuts from Fed, rising Middle East tensions and central bank purchases lift the gold price. 
• Brent Crude crosses 90$ per barrel. The rupee rose sharply to Rs 83.58 against the US dollar.

April Outlook

The current valuation of Nifty stands at 20.9X FY25E, 4% premium to its 10-year average of about 20X. All indices are near or above 5-year PE average. Market is rising up because of no major negative news, continuous heavy inflow of funds, hope of Modi Govt returning back for 3rd term, Central Banks cutting rates sooner, normal monsoon, inflation easing and better than expected corporate results.

Any negative news on above front will trigger a decent correction of 5-7%. Any escalation of war in Israel & Ukraine region will also be a major trigger for market correction. Recently Iran threatened to attack Israel after its embassy in Syria was bombed by Israel killing key personnel.

Markets in the near term would take cues from economic data, announcements relating to the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and the timing and quantum of easing in the interest rate cycle, both globally and in India.

Poll of top 10 brokerage houses in India shows a December-end Nifty target of 23500-24000 max. which means 5-6% returns from current levels. Since we expect a healthy 5-7% correction broad based in markets, buying in dips will enhance overall yearly returns from single digit to double.

Please note we do not expect a long-term correction and only a sharp short one, good enough to enter at lower levels which will enhance portfolio yield by 4-5% even if markets underperform the whole year.

“Markets are strongest when they are broad,
and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.”

Nifty index started the February month on a positive note, and follow up buying was intact, as it kissed a fresh all time high of 22,441 zones. Some volatile swings and profit booking was seen at higher zones, but overall Index is holding it support zones. Large & Mid-Caps continued its rally while profit booking was seen in Small Caps. On the sectoral front we have witnessed buying interest in most of the sectorial indices mainly in Realty, Energy, PSU Banks, Pharma, Auto, IT and Metal sector.

Key events so far:

• Fed indicated it will not hurry in cutting rates, delaying hopes for early rate cuts. The next US Fed meeting is scheduled on March 19-20 and would provide cues into global interest rate direction.
• Indian Economy Grows By 8.4% In Dec Quarter Driven by Construction, Manufacturing Sector. India’s GST Collection Rises 12.5% To Rs 1.68 Lakh Crore in February. India’s Retail Inflation Eases To 5.10% In January 2024.
• SEBI Flags Froth in Small Cap, Mid Cap Stocks; advises AMCs to conduct and disclose stress test and figure out measures to tackle situations when the test results indicate red flags. SEBI also announces T+0 Settlement by March 28.
• Gold prices touches record high of Rs 66,270/- per 10 gm. Brent Crude hovers in the range of 82-83$ per barrel. The rupee rose slightly to settle at Rs 82.88 against the US dollar. Bitcoin bounced back sharply to hit all-time highs of $72K.
• DIIs recorded the seventh consecutive month of inflows at Rs.25,379 crore, while FIIs were net sellers of Rs.15,963 crores.
• Equity mutual funds inflow increased by 23% in February to Rs 26,866 crore. February 2024 SIP inflows at ₹19,187 Crore; as SIP folios cross 8.2 Crore.

March Outlook: Nifty is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 19.5x, which is in line with its 10-year average, even as broader markets trade at expensive valuations (NSE Midcap 100 is trading at ~33% premium to Nifty). Hence, we expect the large caps to outperform the mid and small caps in the near term. March overall is known as sluggish month for markets. Advance Tax payments, Tax Harvesting, Profit booking all leads to correction.

Markets in the near term, would take cues from economic data, announcements relating to the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, and the timing & quantum of easing in the interest rate cycle, both globally and in India.

We expect a healthy 5-7% correction broad based in markets in March. Hence, we recommend allocating 100% in Debt funds at present. Moreover, we do not expect a long-term correction, and only a sharp short one, good enough to renter at lower levels which will enhance portfolio yield by 4-5%, even if markets underperform the whole year.

Happy Investing!

“Money flows in the direction of value.”

Equity markets continued to make positive strides in Jan’24, marking new highs before cooling off towards the end of the month. Positive global environment, benign crude oil prices and healthy corporate earnings, supported the market sentiments. Nifty oscillated in a wide range of ~1,000 points, pulling back from record highs to close flat month on month. Broader market however outperformed with Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100, up ~5% each.

Key Events so far:

• The US Fed kept its interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, while hinting the rate cut might take some more time.
• RBI kept rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting and signalled that interest rates may not be lowered in a hurry.
• The Interim Budget managed to tick many right boxes. The government continued to follow the fiscal consolidation path at the same time maintained its investment led spending growth strategy.
• GST collections surge to Rs.1.72 lakh crore in Jan’24, its second-highest monthly collection.
• India’s Services PMI rose to six-month high to 61.8.
• Equity mutual funds witnessed inflows of Rs. 21,780 crores while SIP hit a fresh record of Rs. 18,839 crores.
• The 3QFY24 corporate earnings has been in line so far. Earnings of the 33 Nifty companies that have declared results until 1-Feb-24 jumped 21% YoY (vs. est. of +20% YoY).
• Regular attacks by Yemen backed Houthi militants on ships passing through Red Sea has blocked a major trade route and led to increase in crude oil prices, brent crude trading above USD80 per barrel.
• FIIs have sold heavily in January 35,978 Cr of Equity while DIIs were net buyers with 26,744 Cr in Equity and the trend has continued in February as well.

Feb Outlook:

As on January 31, 2024, NIFTY 50 was trading at ~18x FY26E price to earnings multiple. Further, Market cap-to-GDP stood over 100% (based on CY25 GDP estimates) and the gap between 10Y G-sec yield and 1Y-Forward NIFTY 50 earnings yield* remains at elevated level. *Earnings yield = 1/ (one year forward P/E)

In general, current valuation indicators are at premium to their historical averages. However, one should view these valuations in the context of structurally attractive nominal GDP growth, a healthy corporate earnings outlook, and robust de-levered corporate and banking balance sheets.

Markets dipped in January, but also rebounded sharply. We expect a healthy 5-7% correction broad based in markets in February. Hence, we recommend allocating 100% in Debt funds at present. Please note, we do not expect a long-term correction and only a sharp short one, good enough to re-enter at lower levels, which will enhance portfolio yield by 4-5%, even if the markets underperform the whole year.

Happy Investing!

“Knowing when to stay out of the markets is as important as knowing when to be in them.” – Mark Weinstein (US Financial Expert)

As we embark on the new year, we extend our warm wishes for a very Happy and Prosperous 2024!

2023 has been a year etched in gold for our nation, a vibrant tapestry woven with countless threads of progress. The Indian economy has remained resilient in the face of global uncertainties on the back of strong structural drivers, macro stability, strong domestic demand, and responsible fiscal governance. This has been reflected in the robust growth of sectors like automobiles, engineering, and infrastructure. The ‘Make in India’ initiative has gained impressive momentum, propelling us closer to our vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat. These cumulative advancements directly contribute to the booming stock market, attracting increasing participation from investors. We are optimistic that this trend will continue in 2024, fuelled by India’s projected trajectory towards becoming a $5 trillion economy.

Over the last three years, we have seen an inflation-led interest rate hike globally. It appears though that interest rates have peaked and there is a possibility of rate cuts in the second half of the year. As global growth remains muted, with commodity prices stabilising and the demand-supply dynamics normalising, it further supports the rate view. This in turn can lead to the flow of funds into emerging markets and India could be a likely beneficiary given its positive growth forecast.

As we enter 2024, the market has seen an 8% gain in December, an 18% return in the last two months, a 20% return in 2023, and a 57% gain in nine months from the low of March.

On the domestic front, the incumbent BJP’s sweeping victory in state elections has improved prospects of political continuity in 2024 general elections. This augurs well for macro and policy momentum in India, which at the moment is seeing the highest growth among major economies (in terms of GDP and corporate earnings). All these factors have led to an upgrade in India’s rating and GDP growth forecast by various global firms. As a result, the market cap of BSE-listed companies has crossed the USD4t mark, and NSE has overtaken the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the world’s 7th largest exchange by market cap.

What to look forward in January

• Q3 results will set the tone for further rally. We expect it to be neutral calming down markets.
• Expect Crude Oil to rebound. Tensions in Red Sea wherein terrorists attacking merchant ships will create roadblocks for smooth movement hampering supply, thus spike in oil prices.
• Inflation nos. expected to remain constant at same levels that means no immediate rate cuts by central banks in India as well as in US.
• Overall, post BJP Victory markets have discounted a BJP win with December rally. Valuations are now touching over-valued zone. Q3 results will rebalance the Price vs Earnings difference and consolidate.

We expect markets to correct in January. Hence, we recommend new funds purchase towards 100% Debt allocation at present. We also recommend booking 20% profit, booking on the overall portfolio, and shifting same to Debt funds.Happy Investing!

Market Outlook – November 2023

“Investors make money, traders make money. Investors who behave like traders & traders who behave like investors get killed.”

The global and domestic markets made a smart come back in the month of November’23 amid cheerful festive season and positive global cues. Investor sentiments turned buoyant as concerns have eased post dovish Fed commentary and strong economic data indicating that US Fed may not go with further rate hike.

Broad-based rally was seen in the month of November with Nifty gaining +5.5% for the month to close at 20,133 levels, while Nifty Midcap 100 / Nifty Small cap 100 indices, outperformed with gains of 10.4%/12%.

DIIs recorded inflows of Rs.12,762 crore, their fourth consecutive month of strong inflows. While FIIs turned net buyers to the tune of Rs.5,795 crore after witnessing selling for three consecutive months.

IPO market was too in spotlight, with 10 main board IPOs worth Rs.14106cr open for subscription during the month. Tata group led Tata Tech saw a record 7.34 million applications and listed at premium of 140%.

BJP’s sweeping victory in three of four states has also instilled confidence in the market as far as political stability is concerned. We expect the market sentiment to get further boost, and thus strengthen the prospect of a pre-election rally.

On sectoral fronts, all the indices gained tracking positive global cues with Realty sector stealing the show. Real estate Sector performed well following a huge surge in sales & property registrations. FMCG and Banks & Financials witnessed modest gains relatively.

Positives in November

• Israel-Hamas War tensions reduced a bit after a temporary ceasefire.
• Crude Oil scaled down from 84$ per barrel to 70$ per barrel – highly positive for Indian markets.
• BJP won 3 key states of MP, Rajasthan & Chhattisgarh, raising hope of a Modi re-election in 2024 Lok Sabha elections – highly positive for Indian markets.
• US 10-year treasury yield corrected from 5% to 4.25% on dovish statements from Fed Governors and continuity of pause in rate hikes in December meet as well.
• RBI kept Repo rate unchanged at 6.5% continued with “Withdrawal of Accommodative Stance”.
• Real GDP growth projection for FY24 revised to 7% from 6.5%
• GST collection of Rs1.68 lakh crores in Nov 2023 were also buoyant.

What to look forward in December

• Fed to kept rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% in their December policy meet, also providing clues for future rate cuts. – Positive for markets.
• Though valuations nearing high zone, higher flows from FIIs and pre-election rally will keep markets in uptrend. – Nifty target 21500.

December Forecast: Sentiments post BJPs victory in 3 key state elections are pretty high now. Equity markets were justifiably anxious about the outcome of state polls and what it portends for the 2024 general elections. With the outcome overwhelmingly in favor of the incumbent BJP, the confidence of the market in the current dispensation and political continuity post 2024 Loksabha elections got a boost. This augurs well for macro and policy momentum for India, which, at the moment, is seeing the highest growth among major economies (both GDP as well as corporate earnings).

We expect market sentiment to strengthen further and the prospect of a preelection rally is quite strong now, in our view. We also note that Nifty has given positive returns (8%-30%) six months into the announcement of general election results (Nov to May) on five previous such occasions (1999-2019).

Happy Investing!