Positives in November
- Nifty & Sensex touched all time high of 26,310 & 86,055 respectively after remaining rangebound for more than a year.
- India’s economy grew 8.2% YoY in Q2 FY26, the fastest pace in six quarters — easily beating consensus forecasts and last year’s 5.6%.
- Donald Trump’s stance on tariffs toward India has become more conciliatory. With ongoing trade negotiations and India’s recent reduction in oil purchases from Russia, a positive announcement may be expected soon.
- GST Collections – November ₹1.70 lakh crore Marginal 0.7% YoY rise, with import GST up 10.2% but domestic GST down 2.3%. Year-to-date growth remains strong at 8.9%.
- Markets rebound in November was also aided by the resolution of the US government shutdown, better-than-expected Q2 earnings, softer inflation, and a strong NDA mandate in Bihar.
- Oil prices remained low, trading in a range of 58-60$ per barrel.
- Festive demand & GST cut boosted urban & rural consumption sales growth. Auto Sales –2W & CV Sales were up – Avrage 30%.
- Globally, financial conditions eased after the Fed’s 25 bps October cut, with a possible additional cut in December.
Negatives in November
- The rupee dropped to a fresh record low (around ₹89.49 per US dollar) in Nov, weighed down by weak foreign investment inflows, uncertainty over global trade deals, and broad currency pressure.
- Manufacturing slump, export-linked industries hurt by tariffs & global headwinds. India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 59.2 in October to 56.6 in Nov, highlighting the slowest improvement in operating conditions since Feb.
- FIIs were again net sellers in Indian Equity market with outflow of 17.5K crores.
December Key Events
- RBI Monetary Policy – 5th Dec. Rate cut expected from RBI as inflation has eased considerably. Positive for Markets.
- Russian President Putin visits India – 4-5th Dec. Key defence deals expected to be signed. Positive for Markets.
- Fed Interest Rate Dec – 11th Dec, expected to cut rates by 25bps. Positive for Markets.
Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation
- Nifty range 25,500-26,500; downside limited, new highs expected.
- Markets expected to rise cautiously. US trade deal is the major announcement markets are waiting for and will not make any big moves unless it is announced.
- Q3 FY26 earnings will shape market directions going ahead, expected to be higher nos. boosting equity markets.
- Globally, US economic nos. are in line. Solid Nvidia results calmed the markets on AI bubble theory.
- Japan inflation nos. needs to be tracked. With appointment of pro-rate hike Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, any interest rate hikes in future will push outflow from global markets triggering global volatility.
Mushtaq is the co-founder of Moneyfrog.in. Mushtaq has had corporate stints with Kotak Securities & IIFL group. He holds an MBA degree from Pune University.
His interests include cooking & gardening. When he is not cooking or gardening, he is writing.
His interests include cooking & gardening. When he is not cooking or gardening, he is writing.